AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents lower in the nearby contracts at midday. The Wednesday morning EIA report showed weekly ethanol production for the week of August 18 at 1.052 million barrels per day. That is 7,000 bpd fewer than last week. Ethanol stocks were reduced by 319,000 barrels during the week to 21.506 million barrels. The FJ Crop tour estimated the Indiana average yield at 171.23 bpa, which is more than 4 bushels above the 3-year average for those routes. The Nebraska tour average was 165.42 bpa, which is nearly 3 bushels per acre above the 3-year average. Chinese trade data shows imports of 913,583 MT of corn during July, well above last July and the fourth largest monthly import amount. Chinese ethanol exports rose sharply.

Sep 17 Corn is at $3.44 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents,

Dec 17 Corn is at $3.58, down 2 cents,

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.70 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents

May 18 Corn is at $3.77 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures are showing fractional to 1 1/4 cent gains at midday. Sep soy meal is down $2/ton, with nearby bean oil 54 points higher. The US announced an anti-dumping duty on biodiesel imports from Argentina and Indonesia (presumed to force more domestic production using BO). Cash deposits on imports of up to 68.28% will be required while the investigation continues. The USDA announced private export sales of 295,220 MT sold to unknown destinations, with 11,220 MT for 16/17 and 284,000 MT for 17/18. In addition to that sale, they reported 640,970 MT of cancellations for 16/17 soybeans to China through their daily reporting system. FJ Tour pod counts for Indiana were higher than the 3-year average.Nebraska average 1131 pods in a 3x3 square, which is 51 below the three year average. China imported 10.08 MT of soybeans in July, 29.92% larger than July 2016. Of the total 499,922 MT came from the US, which was well above last year.

Sep 17 Soybeans are at $9.34 3/4, up 1 cent,

Nov 17 Soybeans are at $9.37 3/4, up 1/4 cent,

Jan 18 Soybeans are at $9.46, up 1/4 cent,

Mar 18 Soybeans are at $9.55 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents,

Sep 17 Soybean Meal is at $293.30, down $2.00

Sep 17 Soybean Oil is at $34.60, up $0.54

Wheat

Wheat futures are currently trading higher in most nearby contracts. KC is fractionally higher with CBT and MPLS up 1 to 3 cents in most contracts. KC hit its lowest price on the continuous front month chart since Dec 12, 2016. The US presented the lowest offer in Iraq’s recent tender for 50,000 MT of wheat, with all offers valid until Thursday. France’s AgriMer is showing that 96% of the French soft wheat crop will exceed the 11.5% protein level, compared to 92% last year. It also estimates that 11% of the crop is greater than 13% protein.

Sep 17 CBOT Wheat is at $4.05 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents,

Sep 17 KCBT Wheat is at $3.99 1/4, up 1/4 cent,

Sep 17 MGEX Wheat is at $6.42, up 1 cent

Cattle

Live cattle futures are down 12.5 to 67.5 cents in most nearby contracts on Wednesday. Feeder cattle futures are mixed at the moment, with nearby Aug up 27.5 cents. The CME feeder cattle index was 6 cents lower than the previous day at $143.43 for August 21. Wholesale beef prices were lower in the Wednesday morning report, with choice down 12 cents at $192.91 and select boxes $1.45 lower at $189.44. For the second week in a row, there were no cattle sold on the FCE. There were two offers of $107 and $107.25 passed on. FI cattle slaughter through Tuesday was estimated at 236,000 head, 1,000 more than the previous week and 11,000 larger than the same week last year. The Cold Storage report on Tuesday indicated July 31 frozen beef stocks of 430.429 million pounds, down 8.37% from a year ago but 3.64% larger than June 30.

Aug 17 Cattle are at $106.400, down $0.325,

Oct 17 Cattle are at $107.050, down $0.675,

Dec 17 Cattle are at $109.950, down $0.125,

Aug 17 Feeder Cattle are at $142.050, down $0.025

Sep 17 Feeder Cattle are at $142.325, up $0.275

Oct 17 Feeder Cattle are at $142.150, down $0.125

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are 65 to 85 cents lower in the front months at midday. The CME Lean Hog Index for 8/21 was 82 cents lower than the previous day at $81.53. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 51 cents lower in the Wednesday morning report, with a weighted average of $88.63. The butt and ham were lower, with the belly dropping $6.46. The national base hog carcass was down $1.60 at $68.99 in the AM report. FI hog slaughter was estimated at 874,000 through Tuesday, 18,000 head fewer than the previous week and 2,000 larger than the same week in 2016. The USDA tallied pork stocks of 556.179 million pounds on July 31, down 7.09% from a year ago and 1.19% lower than June. July belly stocks were reported at 17.554 million pounds, 21.25% lower than June and just 34.6% of July 2016. Belly inventory is still very tight, but the bacon price hikes have made it to the retail meat counter and local burger joint.

Oct 17 Hogs are at $63.075, down $0.800,

Dec 17 Hogs are at $58.400, down $0.650

Feb 18 Hogs are at $62.900, down $0.850

Cotton

Cotton futures are showing strong gains in the nearby contracts, as Oct is up 165 points. The USDA cotton AWP will be updated tomorrow, as it is 59.70 cents/lb through Thursday. The Cotlook A index for August 22 was 25 points higher than the previous day at 77.90 cents/lb. On Wednesday, China sold 28,900 MT of cotton at an auction of state reserves, as 29,700 MT was offered. China is now limiting reserve purchases to higher quality cotton. That leaves more low quality cotton in the cash market, joined by older 2013 inventory being auctioned. Trade data from Chinese customs shows July imports were 90,000 MT, down 7.3% from last year.

Oct 17 Cotton is at 70.53, up 165 points,

Dec 17 Cotton is at 68.91, up 110 points

Mar 18 Cotton is at 68.3, up 84 points

May 18 Cotton is at 68.830, up 82 points


Market Commentary provided by:

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