Looking Ahead

There are only 11 trading sessions left after today until we get to the June 28 acreage and stocks reports as well as first notice day against the July futures. It's also the end of the month and quarter! There might be increased activity as we approach the date. The USDA has exhibited that they don't need no stinkin' badges when they release figures and even though the reports are supposed to reflect conditions as of June 1 they might incorporate conditions up and including to June 28. They don't need no stinkin' badges!

Mother Nature has taught us that she still has a lot to say given the dampness that she gave us in May and June in the Heartland. There's a long way to go until wheat, corn and beans are in the bin and we'll have to hit on all cylinders the rest of the growing season to achieve anything close to trend line yields. Wheat may become more volatile if we continue to stay wet through harvest as end users may be willing to pay more for quality. It's a day by day evaluation! Even beans may suffer from another couple of weeks of too wet. Some say we start losing significant yield potential after the Summer Solstice as beans are known as a "short day" plant. Lower yields may be a fallacy. Regardless, there will be more anxiety this season. When does the growing season end will be a concern as we get into August!

Corn and bean spreads could stay weak as we approach first notice day on June 28. Bullish sentiment might be found in the contracts starting next Spring! Wheat spreads might become extremely sensitive given quality issues. We typically are harvesting wheat at the Springfield, Illinois and Indianapolis latitude on the Fourth of July. Go south 25 miles a day for normal harvest and you'll see that the recent forecasts of cool and wet may damage the harvest in Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee and Kentucky. The USDA did suggest increased feeding of Hard red wheat in the recent supply/demand and soft red may get there, too if we have some problems.

The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.

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Steve Bruce

Walsh Trading
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